- A future Flash NAND with 3-D process using Entrepix CMP technology http://bit.ly/XsoLH
- Green Promise of LED Lighting; Can last up to 22 years (if made correctly), cheaper if use Silicon substrate http://bit.ly/iVdMb
- Internet data center power need +20% yr, Semiconductor come to rescue, low power DRAM, Flash SSD HD http://bit.ly/1dR31g
- Will E-Book rescue Semiconductors? http://tinyurl.com/l3p7nt Semiconductor are electronic building blocks. They will grow with iPhone, Flash, NAND, Smart Grid, and LED
- Android Phones Coming http://tinyurl.com/on5c7d, interesting if smart iPhone market will evolve as http://bit.ly/1063kT
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Latest Twitters
Shakeout in SSD Market
Shakeout in SSD Market
Learning Curve Leads to Shakeout in SSD Market Septmber 1, 2008
Similar to many other new technologies I have observed since the first EEPROM, SSD will be slow to grow to large volume due to the learning required by suppliers and customers when new technologies are implemented. It will take a few years for SSD to evolve to a product ready for large volume markets. Some specific issues that will be needed to be resolved first are:SSD is different from hard drive and it will take time to optimize SSD drive interaction with the system it will be used with.1. Only after the differences between SSD and hard drive are fully understood (their interaction with the system they are used in, their reliability, etc), new products will be designed to take advantage of the inherent benefits of SSD.3. Each major type of system that can use SSD (PC, Enterprise , Mobile, Media players) will have to go through these major learning cycles.4. After the major stumbling blocks in each application types are ironed out, the SSD volume will take off.All these factors are likely to slow the market penetration of SSD and are part of the reasons for the shakeout that is discussed below.
Learning Curve Leads to Shakeout in SSD Market Septmber 1, 2008
Similar to many other new technologies I have observed since the first EEPROM, SSD will be slow to grow to large volume due to the learning required by suppliers and customers when new technologies are implemented. It will take a few years for SSD to evolve to a product ready for large volume markets. Some specific issues that will be needed to be resolved first are:SSD is different from hard drive and it will take time to optimize SSD drive interaction with the system it will be used with.1. Only after the differences between SSD and hard drive are fully understood (their interaction with the system they are used in, their reliability, etc), new products will be designed to take advantage of the inherent benefits of SSD.3. Each major type of system that can use SSD (PC, Enterprise , Mobile, Media players) will have to go through these major learning cycles.4. After the major stumbling blocks in each application types are ironed out, the SSD volume will take off.All these factors are likely to slow the market penetration of SSD and are part of the reasons for the shakeout that is discussed below.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Is Mobile Computing the Next Big Market?
Articles:1. Is Mobile Computing the Next Big Market?
2. Light and Cheap, Netbooks Are Poised to Reshape PC Industry /New York Times
3.Netbooks, smart phones: Will the twain meet? /EETimes
4. Lighter on Laps and Wallets /New York Times_____________________________________________________________
1. Is Mobile Computing the Next Big Market?April 15, 2009A new market is being developed, driven by the increasing demand for convenient mobile internet access. Today this demand is being met by netbook computers and the iPhone and its competitors. Netbook computers are now selling more units than desktop computers. The consumer wants a device that is cheaper, lighter, smaller, and has a longer battery life than the traditional laptop. The demand for the iPhone grew quickly because of its ability to meet these needs in a user friendly platform.Lighter on Laps and Wallets describes the myriad of ways that people today are using their netbook computers.Ron Maltiel (408) 446-3040
2. Light and Cheap, Netbooks Are Poised to Reshape PC Industry /New York Times
3.Netbooks, smart phones: Will the twain meet? /EETimes
4. Lighter on Laps and Wallets /New York Times_____________________________________________________________
1. Is Mobile Computing the Next Big Market?April 15, 2009A new market is being developed, driven by the increasing demand for convenient mobile internet access. Today this demand is being met by netbook computers and the iPhone and its competitors. Netbook computers are now selling more units than desktop computers. The consumer wants a device that is cheaper, lighter, smaller, and has a longer battery life than the traditional laptop. The demand for the iPhone grew quickly because of its ability to meet these needs in a user friendly platform.Lighter on Laps and Wallets describes the myriad of ways that people today are using their netbook computers.Ron Maltiel (408) 446-3040
Long Term Trends in the NOR and NAND Markets
Articles:
1. Long Term Trend in the NOR and NAND Markets
2. What's next for Spansion? /EETimes
3. Spansion's Chapter 11 signals the erosion of the flash memory market/ Betanews ___________________________________________________________
1. Long Term Trends in the NOR and NAND MarketsI believe the article about Spansion's Chapter 11 ... is missing the point of the real reason for the failure of Spansion. The key reason is that in the non volatitle market the NOR is on a shrinking growth rate pace compared to NAND's accelerating growth rate. As a result, the semiconductor companies that focused on NAND have been growing faster and have been more profitable than the ones that focused on NOR. The current global economic upheavl is just accelerating this trend.This phenomena is mainly due to NOR’s higher cost and smaller memory size relative to NAND at every semiconductor technology node. A similar development took place in the SRAM and DRAM memory market in the past. SRAM and DRAM unit volume used to be equal in size, but as a result of DRAM being cheaper with a larger memory size, its current market size is about 10X the size of SRAM memory (even though SRAM is faster).This growth trend in the volume of products and applications that use NAND and not NOR has been accelerating for several years. See the article below about the trouble that Intel had in selling NOR memories from May 2007Barron's Eric Savitz column / May 2007"Report Plan to Spin of NOR Business IN JV STMicro "Done Deal" Hynix Also Involved"http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/05/09/intel-report-plan-to-spin-off-nor-business-in-jv-with-stmicro-done-deal-hynix-also-involved/My comment at the time as seen in the link above -"It would make sense for Intel to pull out of the NOR business, over the next several years NOR volume will drop to 1/10 of NAND volume..."Another example indicating this long term trend impact of NAND on NOR is in What's next for SpansionWhile the complete article is below, the relevant points are:''In the fourth quarter a decline in end-user demand caused NOR unit shipments to plunge,'' Handy said. ''In all prior years NOR unit shipments have followed a cycle, with quarterly increases from Q1-Q4 before a seasonal drop-off in the first quarter. Last year NOR unit shipments collapsed in the fourth quarter to a level not seen since early 2005...Some designs are even converting to NAND alone. Unless the high-density NOR is sold at a very low price, today's cheap NAND is likely to capture the bulk of the design's flash revenues,'' he said. ''One gigabyte of NAND today sells for only about 10 percent of the price it commanded in the middle of 2007. NAND's price slide is dragging down high-density NOR prices, vacuuming all the profit out of the market for the two leaders.''Ron MaltielProviding timely and accurate consulting and business news for the semiconductor industry.
1. Long Term Trend in the NOR and NAND Markets
2. What's next for Spansion? /EETimes
3. Spansion's Chapter 11 signals the erosion of the flash memory market/ Betanews ___________________________________________________________
1. Long Term Trends in the NOR and NAND MarketsI believe the article about Spansion's Chapter 11 ... is missing the point of the real reason for the failure of Spansion. The key reason is that in the non volatitle market the NOR is on a shrinking growth rate pace compared to NAND's accelerating growth rate. As a result, the semiconductor companies that focused on NAND have been growing faster and have been more profitable than the ones that focused on NOR. The current global economic upheavl is just accelerating this trend.This phenomena is mainly due to NOR’s higher cost and smaller memory size relative to NAND at every semiconductor technology node. A similar development took place in the SRAM and DRAM memory market in the past. SRAM and DRAM unit volume used to be equal in size, but as a result of DRAM being cheaper with a larger memory size, its current market size is about 10X the size of SRAM memory (even though SRAM is faster).This growth trend in the volume of products and applications that use NAND and not NOR has been accelerating for several years. See the article below about the trouble that Intel had in selling NOR memories from May 2007Barron's Eric Savitz column / May 2007"Report Plan to Spin of NOR Business IN JV STMicro "Done Deal" Hynix Also Involved"http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/05/09/intel-report-plan-to-spin-off-nor-business-in-jv-with-stmicro-done-deal-hynix-also-involved/My comment at the time as seen in the link above -"It would make sense for Intel to pull out of the NOR business, over the next several years NOR volume will drop to 1/10 of NAND volume..."Another example indicating this long term trend impact of NAND on NOR is in What's next for SpansionWhile the complete article is below, the relevant points are:''In the fourth quarter a decline in end-user demand caused NOR unit shipments to plunge,'' Handy said. ''In all prior years NOR unit shipments have followed a cycle, with quarterly increases from Q1-Q4 before a seasonal drop-off in the first quarter. Last year NOR unit shipments collapsed in the fourth quarter to a level not seen since early 2005...Some designs are even converting to NAND alone. Unless the high-density NOR is sold at a very low price, today's cheap NAND is likely to capture the bulk of the design's flash revenues,'' he said. ''One gigabyte of NAND today sells for only about 10 percent of the price it commanded in the middle of 2007. NAND's price slide is dragging down high-density NOR prices, vacuuming all the profit out of the market for the two leaders.''Ron MaltielProviding timely and accurate consulting and business news for the semiconductor industry.
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